Quebec’s Economy Weakened by Tariffs: Will the Residential Real Estate Market Hold Up?

L’ÎLE-DES-SŒURS, Quebec, Sept. 09, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The imposition of tariffs by the United States earlier this spring is already shaking up the Quebec economy. According to the latest analysis by the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB), rising unemployment, declining economic activity and falling exports confirm that the province is feeling the impact of tariffs imposed by our main trading partner. Although the residential real estate market remains active, signs of a loss of momentum are on the horizon.

An economy under pressure

After a strong start to the year, Quebec’s real GDP fell by 0.5 per cent in May following a 0.2 per cent decline in April, confirming the impact of tariffs on economic activity. Exports—particularly aluminum, the province’s top commodity exported to the United States—plunged 13.4 per cent between the first and second quarters of 2025.

The job market is also feeling the impact. The provincial unemployment rate, which was below 5.5 per cent at the start of the year, climbed to 6.0 per cent in August. Certain regions, such as Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean and Côte-Nord, whose economies rely heavily on the aluminum industry, are particularly vulnerable to the 50 per cent tariffs imposed by the U.S. So far, these two regions have held up relatively well thanks to a limited labour supply, but the risks of a more pronounced slowdown remain.

An active but vulnerable real estate market

Residential sales have been surprisingly robust to date (+12 per cent in the first half of 2025), while the supply of properties on the market remains insufficient to meet demand. Prices are reaching new record highs across the province. The median price of single-family homes averaged $493,000 from January to June, a 10 per cent increase compared to the same period last year.

However, a slowdown in the resale market is expected by the end of the year. The weakening economy and the ongoing rise in the unemployment rate should slow buyer demand and gradually increase the supply of properties for sale. As a result, price growth is expected to lose momentum over the coming months in several regions. If the economic situation continues to deteriorate, prices could stabilize and even decline slightly in certain markets across the province.

“Unlike some provinces, the residential real estate market in Quebec is showing great resilience despite the economic turmoil. However, if the climate of uncertainty persists and current tariffs remain in place, the economy and labour market will continue to weaken. Despite relatively low mortgage rates, the property resale market could shift course in certain regions,” explains Hélène Bégin, QPAREB Senior Economist, Quebec Economy and Real Estate Market.

For more information on the subject, consult QPAREB’s study on the impact of tariffs.

About the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers

The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB) is a non-profit association that brings together more than 15,000 real estate brokers and agencies. It is responsible for promoting and defending their interests while taking into account the issues facing the profession and the various professional and regional realities of its members. The QPAREB is also an important player in many real estate dossiers, including the implementation of measures that promote homeownership. The Association reports on Quebec’s residential real estate market statistics, provides training, tools and services relating to real estate, and facilitates the collection, dissemination and exchange of information. The QPAREB has its head office in Quebec City, administrative offices in Montreal and a regional office in Saguenay. It has two subsidiaries: Société Centris inc. and the Collège de l’immobilier du Québec. Follow its activities at qpareb.ca or via its social media pages: Facebook, LinkedIn, X, and Instagram.

For more information:

Ariane Boulé Morin Relations Publiques
media@apciq.ca

Legal Disclaimer:

EIN Presswire provides this news content "as is" without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the author above.